Future Technologies

If one lesson can be learned from our past it is to NOT put limits on what technology might
someday produce. Assuming that ANYTHING is possible might be the best assumption. For
example, consider what happens when we begin to extrapolate Moore's Law 10 and 20 years into
the future (see Tab. 2 below)?
Moore's Law
1984 1990 1999 2009 2020
RAM (in Megabytes) 0.13 2 131 17000 2000000
HD (in Megabytes) 0.4 23 10000 12000000 14000000000
CPU (in MHz) 10 51 411 5500 75000
Cost $4,000.00 $2,600.00 $1,400.00 $670.00 $320.00
Table 2 - Moore's Law Extrapolated
Gordon Moore believes that his Law will someday hit a wall: "Some time in the next several years
we get to some finite limits, but not before we get through five generations" (in Kanellos, 1997).
One study has shown that limitations could be reached by 2017. It does seem likely that we can
assume growth to continue for several years to come. At current rates, by the time today's first
and second graders graduate from high school, they will be using a computer that has 17,000
Megabytes of RAM, a HD of 12,000,000 Megabytes, a CPU speed of 5,500 Megahertz, and at a
cost of less than $700. Extrapolating further is even more staggering.
We can hardly even begin to imagine what these computers will do. Metcalfe's Law combined
with technology fusion should lead us to believe that we will have an increased reliance on a
Global Digital Network, capable of sending and receiving any form of digital communication to
and from anywhere in the world at any time. A global economy reliant on these emerging
technologies is evidenced by current statistics. Still, we must ask what else is possible?
 In the very near future we will have a keyboardless computer. Voice software is already proving
to be effective in its implementation and it seems only a matter of years before the keyboard will
be removed from many if not most computer environments. Computers are shrinking in size and
are now wearable. For under $5,000 Xybernaut sells a powerful speech-activated computer (see
Fig. 2). Taking this one step farther, although more difficult to implement than originally
anticipated, voice translation technologies will allow for nearly instantaneous communication with
people of different languages (Molitor, 1998). The business and educational implications are
staggering. For example, what if American students could instantly communicate with Chinese
students? Would this change education?

Also possible are body-implant transceivers, all connected to the Global Digital Network, or
medical breakthroughs such as video lens implants, which are already allowing individuals who
were once blind to regain partial sight! For any Star Trek fans reading this paper, it might sound
like we are slowly turning into the Borg (see Fig. 3). If this creature walked into your classroom,
how would you react? The idea might seem ludicrous, but the idea of students walking into class
with Sony Walkmans, pagers, and cell phones was recently considered ludicrous as well. The
technology might someday make unbelievable things possible. It is therefore important for
teachers to work closely with technology designers "to create a world that celebrates and
promotes humanity through the judicious use of technology"

One must keep in mind that there are countless ways technology might develop during the next
several decades. Knowing exactly what these developments will be or where they will lead is not
only impossible, it is unimportant. It is the recognition of what is possible that educators must
consider. Social implications could possibly be the hardest of all to predict, yet it will be education
that many will look to in dealing with these implications. Adequately preparing for these
implications will only occur if we look ahead, which ultimately requires us to ask, what do
members of the educational community see when they look ahead?