References:

1) Bull, G. L. (1997). Technology and schools. Advances in Computers, 5, 321-356.

2) Cetron, M., & Davies, O. (1994). Mastering information in the new century. Washington 

D.C., Special Libraries Association.

3) Fulton, K. (1989). Technology training for teachers: a federal perspective. Educational 

Technology, 29(3). 12-19.

4) Gentry, G., & Csete, J. (1990). Educational Technology in the 1990s. In G. Anglin (Ed.), 

Instructional technology: Past, present and future. (pp. 20-33). Colorado: Libraries 

Unlimited.

5) Goldschmidt, A., & Akera, A. (1998). John W. Mauchly and the development of the 

ENIAC computer. University of Pennsylvania [On-line]. Available: 

http://www.library.upenn.edu/special/gallery/mauchly/jwmintro.html [October 1, 1998].

6) Graham, D. (1997). The classroom computer revolution that hasn't happened-yet! 

Education Canada, 37(1). 10-14, 52. 

7) Greenspan, A. (1997). Our nation's ability to compete worldwide: Unprecedented 

flexibility to adopt to change. Vital speeches of the day, 64. 98-101.

Conclusion: The Author's Views

Experts from all fields, including education, business, and government agree that we have moved

into the information age. As much as 97% of the world's knowledge will be accumulated over one

person's lifetime (Molitor, 1998). Against statistics like this, teaching students a host of facts "just

in case" they need them later on in life is a fruitless effort. The ability to find and use facts as they

are needed becomes the skill that will enable students to become lifelong learners. The roll of

education is no longer to provide educational opportunities through early adulthood, but to

provide the scaffolding necessary to support individuals and families from all walks of life,

throughout their entire lives. In order to prevent a further widening between the upper and lower

classes, it will become increasingly important for educational institutions to provide this support by

providing weeknight and weekend adult classes focused on emerging technologies. 

Very soon we can look for interactive video technologies to allow parents to play a more active

role in their children's education (e.g. watching a class presentation via online video). Schools

that actively pursue such avenues will be in great demand. School days will grow to seven hours

in length to provide more instruction and to meet the needs of dual income families. As more

states pass school voucher initiatives, a greater dependency upon private education will result.

Schools will compete to hire teachers, raising teacher salaries. Dissatisfaction with public

education and national and statewide acceptance of school vouchers will cause the private and

home schooling markets to grow well into the next century.

The Future of Education: Futurists' Views

It is no secret that our educational system is slow to adopting innovations. The old adage, "the
only constant in life is change," has rarely been applied to education. Gentry and Csete have
stated, "educators are slow to recognize the need to develop a curriculum that will prepare the
workforce for the demands they will face" (1990, pg. 25). Some would argue that change in
education will continue to be a dream unrealized well into the new millennium, but many opinions
run contrary to this argument.

A 1997 study performed by the National Home Education Research Institute showed that there
are approximately 1.23 million American children being taught at home. Home school students
collectively outnumber the individual statewide public school enrollments in each of 41 states. On
average, home schoolers out perform their public school counterparts by a minimum of 30
percentile points across all subjects. The study further shows that family income, parental
education, gender and minority differences have no impact on the success of home school
student performance. Also, the amount spent per student is staggeringly different: $546/student
for home school versus $5,325/student for public schools. The study shows that nearly 84% of
home school children use a computer in their education, compared to the national average of
26% (Ray, 1997).
School vouchers appear to be another factor that might create a larger private market for
education. Initiatives in California and Florida have already shown that vouchers are gaining
support among the American public.

Future Technologies

If one lesson can be learned from our past it is to NOT put limits on what technology might
someday produce. Assuming that ANYTHING is possible might be the best assumption. For
example, consider what happens when we begin to extrapolate Moore's Law 10 and 20 years into
the future (see Tab. 2 below)?
Moore's Law
1984 1990 1999 2009 2020
RAM (in Megabytes) 0.13 2 131 17000 2000000
HD (in Megabytes) 0.4 23 10000 12000000 14000000000
CPU (in MHz) 10 51 411 5500 75000
Cost $4,000.00 $2,600.00 $1,400.00 $670.00 $320.00
Table 2 - Moore's Law Extrapolated
Gordon Moore believes that his Law will someday hit a wall: "Some time in the next several years
we get to some finite limits, but not before we get through five generations" (in Kanellos, 1997).
One study has shown that limitations could be reached by 2017. It does seem likely that we can
assume growth to continue for several years to come. At current rates, by the time today's first
and second graders graduate from high school, they will be using a computer that has 17,000
Megabytes of RAM, a HD of 12,000,000 Megabytes, a CPU speed of 5,500 Megahertz, and at a
cost of less than $700. Extrapolating further is even more staggering.
We can hardly even begin to imagine what these computers will do. Metcalfe's Law combined
with technology fusion should lead us to believe that we will have an increased reliance on a
Global Digital Network, capable of sending and receiving any form of digital communication to
and from anywhere in the world at any time. A global economy reliant on these emerging
technologies is evidenced by current statistics. Still, we must ask what else is possible?
 In the very near future we will have a keyboardless computer. Voice software is already proving
to be effective in its implementation and it seems only a matter of years before the keyboard will
be removed from many if not most computer environments. Computers are shrinking in size and
are now wearable. For under $5,000 Xybernaut sells a powerful speech-activated computer (see
Fig. 2). Taking this one step farther, although more difficult to implement than originally
anticipated, voice translation technologies will allow for nearly instantaneous communication with
people of different languages (Molitor, 1998). The business and educational implications are
staggering. For example, what if American students could instantly communicate with Chinese
students? Would this change education?

Also possible are body-implant transceivers, all connected to the Global Digital Network, or
medical breakthroughs such as video lens implants, which are already allowing individuals who
were once blind to regain partial sight! For any Star Trek fans reading this paper, it might sound
like we are slowly turning into the Borg (see Fig. 3). If this creature walked into your classroom,
how would you react? The idea might seem ludicrous, but the idea of students walking into class
with Sony Walkmans, pagers, and cell phones was recently considered ludicrous as well. The
technology might someday make unbelievable things possible. It is therefore important for
teachers to work closely with technology designers "to create a world that celebrates and
promotes humanity through the judicious use of technology"

One must keep in mind that there are countless ways technology might develop during the next
several decades. Knowing exactly what these developments will be or where they will lead is not
only impossible, it is unimportant. It is the recognition of what is possible that educators must
consider. Social implications could possibly be the hardest of all to predict, yet it will be education
that many will look to in dealing with these implications. Adequately preparing for these
implications will only occur if we look ahead, which ultimately requires us to ask, what do
members of the educational community see when they look ahead?

The Future

Order Out of Chaos

Many factors or "wild cards" contribute to forecasting a possible future. Many futurists have
likened these wild cards to the "butterfly effect" of chaos theory. The premise in the butterfly effect
is that a butterfly flapping its wings in Singapore could cause a rippling effect that would
eventually lead to a hurricane in the Caribbean. The premise behind chaos theory is that there
can be order to chaos. The beauty of fractals is based upon this premise. Out of the chaos in
today's world, we have found several trends: Moore's Law, Metcalfe's Law, technology fusion,
and our technologically dependent world economy. We must finally ask where are these trends
leading us and how might they impact education?

Using technology can change the way teachers teach. Some teachers use technology in 'teacher-centered' ways...On the other hand, some teachers use technology to support more student-centered approaches to instruction, so that students can conduct their own scientific inquiries and engage in collaborative activities while the teacher assumes the role of facilitator or coach."

When the rate of change inside an institution is less than the rate of change outside, the end is in 
site... 
Jack Welch, CEO of General Electric
Right now, education is moving along at a snail's pace, while the world outside is speeding by at 
a supersonic rate. According to Fulton (1989, pg. 12), "Classrooms of today resemble their 
ancestors of 50 and 100 years ago much more closely than do today's hospital operating rooms, 
business offices, manufacturing plants, or scientific labs." If you put a doctor of 100 years ago in 
today's operating room, she would be lost, yet if you placed a teacher of 100 years ago into one 
of today's classrooms she wouldn't skip a beat. Does this mean that the end is in sight for 
education? The answer is YES, if your asking if it means the end of education as we know it 
today. Let us take a peek at what the future might look like

 Being a Webmaster is one of today's hottest careers, yet five or six years ago Webmasters did
not even exist. This is an example of how education must consider preparing students for jobs
that have yet to be created. Alan Greenspan, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board,
recently said (1997), "One of the most central dynamic forces [in the economy] is the accelerated
expansion of computer and telecommunications technologies...clearly our educational institutions
will continue to play an important role in preparing workers to meet these demands" (pg. 98). He
also stated, "workers are facing the likelihood that they will need retooling during their
careers...education is increasingly becoming a lifelong activity" (pg. 100). To prepare students to
be lifelong learners requires a new approach to teaching, one in which students are taught how to
learn on their own.

Unfortunately, we don't have to look hard to find teachers utilizing new technological tools to
replicate old educational models. For example, most uses of distance education employ the same
instructor delivering the same lecture to the same audience, only now the audience can be larger.
This distance education model does nothing to address the concept of lifelong learning. This
traditional model still places the student in a passive role, merely absorbing as much information
as possible. Instead, more collaborative models of distance education could be employed. For
example, The Center for Technology and Teacher Education at the University of Virginia uses live
video connections with partner universities to bring together professors and students in a forum
where all parties contribute and benefit from the collaborative learning experience. However, the
overall dependence on the traditional instructional model dominates the majority of today's
educational system.

Much of the failure to utilize technology in education today is, as Thornburg puts it, "the 

assumption that content [is] king...in a world of rapid information growth, it is context that 

matters...context is king" (in Thorburg, 1997, pg. 5). Thornburg advocates that rather than teach 

students a stockpile of facts to use "just in case" they might need them some day, that instead 

learning be put in context - i.e. master the ability to gather the appropriate facts and then 

creatively leverage those facts towards the learning objective. Teachers should create situations 

where the students are required to locate the facts and information specifically related to the 

context of the question at hand, and then to utilize that information effectively.